Forum Archive Index - July 2002

["Morgy" <morgy40@xtra.co.nz>]

Snoopy

 

I think you miss the point of what phaedrus is trying to say to you & I believe this is why, please, this is not meant as an offence to you as I appreciate you are passing on what you believe is right, debate will allow those onlookers to decide for themselves. 

Essentially the quality of the "premises or stated scenarios "  you use, are lopsided & this is why you are being picked off so quickly, Inter Alia, he pointed out that you couldnt have capital appreciation and ranging as part of the same argument, a fairly obvious flaw I would have thought, yet you immediately change the scenario when previously you wanted a trading range to suit your argument. I dont really study NZ shares so caught up with TEL from phaedrus's chart on sharechat.  TA 101 would ask  you wheres the trades  you talk about making ?,  there aint any, this hound aint done no hunting for a long time. Not since early 99 according to this chart. 

 

In the same argument you wont allow the trader to make any perfect trades because of course that wouldnt be possible & it probably isnt, but allow the continuation of what you call an average shareprice appreciation of .28c per year. If you gave me that advise in Dec 98 , you would be my ex financial adviser. I would of course still have my income from the share but my devalued capital would be nearly half. That is an undisputed fact as it is a shown statistic on the chart that a third former could work out, not something you imagine will happen because it sounds good like later in your email when you say the shareholder wants to sell in 5-7 years and low & behold as if by magic the share price has appreciated to the right amount to give you your wonderful  .28c per share average growth (the only scenario that remained consistant) and still with the income to boot & at the right time.

The point is simple, look at what actually has happened or is currently happening rather than what you would like to happen, this will make for much easier investing for all types.

 

Last question, Is there any person not from canterbury in the FA corner, if so please step forward & present your balanced opinion.

 

Regards

 

Morgy