Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["Peter" <pmaiden@today.com.au>]

SWLEE - remember our discussion back in October about CAH and WHS.

We both agreed that once WHS breached the 625 level (it had shot up 
 from 575) it would continue to rise. Nice gains over the last three 
months has occured and there is really no reason why the long term 
upward trend should not continue. Hope you stayed in for the ride.

We did have different opinions on CAH. You were quite bullish.

Another quarter has gone by in the life of CAH and another quarterly 
announcement due next week. The press say they might report about 
$18M profit.

I will perversely update the CAH performance charts I keep - for no 
other reason to remind myself not to get too interested in this 
stock. 

However on a serious note CAH is a major component of the NZ economy 
and such continued poor performance depresses me.

As the previous three quarters total earnings are nil what they made 
in the December quarter will in effect reflect the latest 12 month 
performance. 

If it is $18M ( 1 cent per share) it will be considerably less than 
the $42M in the December 2000 quarter.

I wonder what spin CAH will put on such a result. The $42M earnings 
in December 2000 were disappointing as CAH CEO Chris Liddell said 
"Our performance in the December quarter has been impacted by the 
slow  down in the Australian residential construction markets." 

One year on I thought that these slowdowns were only part of history 
and that Australian residential construction was booming. But it 
appears as if CAH will make less when market conditions are better.

The situation is even worse than it was in October when we talked 
about it. Annual earnings of $18M on shareholders equity of $5 
billion and sales of $4 billion is ...(what words can describe it)

SWLEE - do you still have the same views on CAH.   

Cheers

Peter


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