Forum Archive Index - December 2001

["winner69 ." <wwinner69@hotmail.com>]

I was interested in seeing what subsequently happened to the winners in 
1999. Included in the current NZSE40 and Nid Cap Index there are 45 
companies that existed back in 1999 (FRU, RBC and PWC are the exclusions 
from the current list). I didn't have the time to extend the exercise past 
this number of stocks. The years were based on Christams year ends and the 
data used was that what sharechat got Iguana to run this time last year.

THE WINNERS OVER 3 YEARS - Of the 45 stocks in the sample 24 increased in 
price during 1999. Only 7 of the 24 went on to make further gains in 2000. 
And what surprised me was that all these 7 went on to make further gains in 
2001. The 7 were AIA, ANZ, FAH (now FPA and FPH) BCH, MHI, SKC and SKY. It 
was a close call for SKY in 2000. All these have a pedigree of winning.

THE LOSERS OVER 3 YEARS - Of the 21 stocks whose price declined in 1999 11 
went on to see a further decline in 2000 and AIR, NCH, BRY and WAM went on 
to record three successive annual declines in price.

A GROUP OF ALSO RANS WHO NEED TO IMPROVE - of the 24 winners in 1999 17 went 
on to record a decline in 2000 and 5 of these also recorded a decline in 
2001. These five who have now recorded 2 successive years of dcclining 
prices are FFS, NPX, TLS, THL and TWR.


Another bit of useless info from this small sample over three years 
performance - 50% of stocks that gained in price any year made gains the 
following year but 60% of stocks whose price declined in any one year saw 
thier price go up the following year.

So are these winners going to continue to win in 2002? and which of these 
losers are going to turn around in 2002? or will some of the losers just 
continue on being losers (the odds are that some will)?

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