Forum Archive Index - December 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi capitalist,
>
>
> Ah Snoopy m'dear.... My thoughts are indeed based on" what goes down
> must go up" . Air NZ surely can't get any worse (I hope). 
>
>
The original shareholders now own only 20% of Air New 
Zealand compared to what they did before.     This means that for 
every $1m recovery in profit only $200,000 will go to the original 
shareholders. 

So today's real market price of Air New Zealand based on the 
recovery of future earnings (compared to the Air New Zealand that was 
listed before) is 0.32/0.2=$1.60. Or more or less the same level it 
was before the Ansett crisis!   Way too high if you ask me.
>
>
>Anyways, it has always worked for me - buying what everyone else is 
>dissing!!
>
>
Contrarian investing is a good strategy overall.   But what goes down 
can go down and stay down.  The idea is to buy something that has a 
good chance of bouncing up, even if you don't know exactly 'when'.
>
>
> Your choices are good I must admit ...BTW what do you think of FFS ?
> 
>
I've got to admit I was surprised when FFS got to 23c last week.  
Must look awfully tempting to a contrarian investor at that level.
They claim to be making a profit,  
But the share price won't recover until the market for wood products 
recovers and I have no idea when that will be.  If you had a 
balaced share portfolio you could do a lot worse than hold FFS as one 
of your holdings though IMHO.  SNOOPY









  
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"You can tell me I'm wrong twice, 
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