Forum Archive Index - September 2001

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

  QBE may be an example of a stock that is of interest to all 
traders/investors, regardless of the time frame in which they operate. This 
unusual circumstance has been occasioned by recent panic selling triggered by 
the news that QBE had significant exposure to claims related to the WTC 
tragedy. This is a quality stock with excellent fundamentals and management, 
which is why it is one of Gerry's old favourites. A bad quarter or a bad year 
does not turn a superior stock into a inferior one. I leave it to those 
differently abled to provide us with re-calculated fundamental data. 
BUY AND HOLD.  Even after this meltdown, longterm holders of QBE have made an 
average of 13%pa capital gain on this stock. Add dividends, and you can see how 
good this performance is. New longterm holders have the opportunity to buy this 
stock at historical support levels, the first chance in years.
LONG-TERM TREND TRADERS. Traders following a simple trendline based system 
would have made 2 trades in 8 years. These would total four and a half years in 
the market, for returns of 34%pa and 38%pa. A new Uptrend has not begun yet, so 
they would currently be out of the market. Note how the simple trendline 
signalled an exit as soon as prices weakened - long before any meltdown.
MEDIUM-TERM TREND TRADERS.  QBE has been an excellent stock for medium-term 
traders, especially during the years in which it was in a trading range. They 
would currently be out, waiting for the beginning of a new uptrend. 
SHORT-TERM TREND TRADERS. It is much easier to make money short-term trading a 
rising stock than a falling one. QBE has been a good stock for this, and that 
should continue. These traders would be waiting for a Close above $5.89 to 
signal an entry.
SWING TRADERS.  Ditto, but they would be waiting for any sale above $6.28 to 
enter.
SHORT-TERM CANDLESTICK TRADERS.  Would have bought at $5.36 on 27/9/01 on the 
basis of a Dragonfly Doji candlestick.
DAY TRADERS.  The current high volatility of QBE is giving opportunities to 
make (or lose!) as much as 10% or more per day, trading this stock. 
                                    Phaedrus.

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