Forum Archive Index - September 2001

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

Listening to the off -the- cuff statements by President Bush, one gets the impression that unlike his predecessor, he is more emotionally inclined.

 

Hearing Clinton talking, one feels that although his impromptu speech may sound ' loose', yet by training and a sharp intellect, every word was in fact measured.

 

That is an important distinction, one which favours Bill Clinton in International affairs.

 

While Bush has managed to get the public behind him, his speeches have raised the expectations of the man in the street.

 

The people expect him to carry out his threats while not being aware of the obstacles ahead.

 

Also, the Press reports that an unfortunate choice of words, ie. having a 'crusade' is not impressing the moderate follower of Islam but instead provides ammo. to the fundamentalist in the propaganda war!

 

There is no doubt that he is a sincere person but by raising tensions, the people will want results!

 

What are the chances of success? It is to his credit and promises made to Pakistan that officially, this country supports the US and so do the U Emirates.

 

These two countries and the Saudis recognized the Taliban republic of Afghanistan.

 

The U Emirates have decided to break this recognition and that leaves Saudi Arabia with a Moslem population which already does not like the US bases on their soil.

 

Sofar, because of expected problems, the Saudi rulers have decided to stand aside. This could be a problem for the US.

 

The Gulf states will have a meeting shortly to discuss the situation but what will be the outcome? Very little to assist the US, I think.

 

But will this situation develop into a large regional war? Some investors seem to think so and are trying to build this into the share price.

 

In my opinion, the likelihood of this happening, is extremely small: As mentioned, crucial countries apart from the Saudis, support the US.

 

The US and their Allies can go ahead in Afghanistan but to wage a larger war, they need oil and here the Saudies have the whip hand. They are unlikely to permit such a war.

 

In any case, the US would not like to be asked to lose their bases!

 

Investors will need to pay less attention to the rhetoric and more to the influential role the Saudis may play!

 

Unlike the British who have strict security measures in place due to IRA threats, it is obvious that the FBI and CIA have not performed that well over the years. 

 

Hopefully, both branches can now start sacking the willing but non-active personnel: Apparently, another apparatus will be built which will take over the more critical duties, eg security, from the FBI.

 

Gerry