Sharechat Logo

Forum Archive Index - December 2000

Please note usage of the Forum is subject to the Terms & Conditions.

 
Messages by Date [ Next by Date Previous by Date ]
Messages by Thread [ Next by Thread Previous by Thread ]
Post to the Forum [ New message Reply to this message ]
Printable version
 

Re: Re: [sharechat] WORKING AT THE COAL FACE


From: "G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>
Date: Fri, 29 Dec 2000 17:43:55 +1300


 
 
Peter,
 
Some time ago a top analyst 'did a job' on AIA. He predicted a PE of about 23.1 for the current year.
 As tourism has picked up since, I am predicting a somewhat higher profit; however, I will be using his PE and the $3.14 closing price.
 
I think that AIA is worth a PE of 25 and as six months of their business year have passed, I should be paying 25/23.1 * $3.14 = $ 3.40 per share!
 
Hugh Webber has already pointed out that Singapore was anxious to obtain a stake of only 5% and paid $2.90 some time ago.
 
One reason that the stock has not been able to achieve much higher prices, is the 420 mill. shares, the company has.
 I estimate that up to 80% are firmly held and that another 15% will only sell at more than $4.0. 
That still leaves say some 20 mill.shares in the hands of people willing to sell at between $3.15-$4.0.
 
I think that Singapore may want to increase their stake and that they will have to pay at least $4.50/share for a complete takeover! 
 
If we can keep the $NZ at current levels then there may be no reason to raise interest rates assuming that the demand stabilises.
 I think that dr Cullen will keep a firm grip on the money and that should be a plus for this stock and others eg. SKC.
 
However, I don't normally consider AIA as a stock for short term investment.
 
Gerry 
 

 
Messages by Date [ Next by Date: [sharechat] SKY TV // AIA Matthew Van Veen
Previous by Date: Re: [sharechat] WORKING AT THE COAL FACE P Maiden ]
Messages by Thread [ Next by Thread: [sharechat] Sanford michgore
Previous by Thread: Re: [sharechat] WORKING AT THE COAL FACE P Maiden ]
Post to the Forum [ New message Reply to this message ]