Forum Archive Index - December 2000

[michgore <michgore@i4free.co.nz>]

Nice one Hugh!   This is what we need right now, a little less bickering and
slagging each other off and a little more sharing of information.  Could you
enlarge a little on your thoughts re Carter Holt?  In an economic slowdown
wouldn't Fletcher Building, also on the list, be equally affected?  I don't see
Tranzrail as a buy right now and Sky TV recently rose from a dip in price,
personally can't see them rising much more in short term.  regards  michael
disclosure -  of this lot hold only CAH

hugh webber wrote:

> Just received the J B Were Xmas letter.
> They see the NZ market as undervalued by 15%
> (but this could be lessened by profit downgrades)
> and the Oz market overvalued by 8% and the
> US market overvalued by an unquantified amount
> (but see my previous post from Bloomberg quoting
> P/Es of Fri 22nd Dec, 'Rational, Sane investing vs the
> NASDAQ) , maybe the Dow is overvalued by about 55% from
> that data.
> They see the NZ and Oz markets possibly benefitting
> from a move out of overvalued US stocks.
>
> The NZ stocks they prefer are (for defensive reasons)
>  Auck I A, Baycorp,
> Carter Holt, FCL Bldg, INL, Lion, Montana, Lyttelton Port,
> Nat Gas Corp, Sky City, Sky TV, Tourism Hldgs,
> Tranz Rail, Waste Management, the Warehouse, and
> Westpac Trust.
>
> I have a little trouble following the reasoning for Carter Holt
> (none actually provided) for example in an economic slowdown.
> Maybe its time to jump ship for tradeable fixed interest
> securities with an interest fall coming, even though the gains
> are taxable? Any recommendations in that field?
>
> cheers,
> Hugh
>
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