Forum Archive Index - February 2000

["nick" <acummin@es.co.nz>]

    Prospects for montana are looking good.
The low dollar combined with improved wine sales means
the outlook is very positive.
      News of this years potential wine harvest is beginning to filter
through and it looks sure to be a record year

As the industry approaches vintage, reports on vintage expectations are
starting to come through to the Wine Institute office.
Reports generally indicate that the grapes are looking fine and that at this
stage vintage appears to be a little behind last year, but given 1999 was
very early this is not of any concern.
Any estimations of vintage size should take the following background
information into consideration:

* Vintage 2000 will be from a vineyard area of at least 9,500 hectares, and
probably in reality closer to 9,750 hectares. This is an increase of at
least 750 hectares over vintage 1999.

* Vintage yields in recent years have varied considerably. In the past five
years the vintage yields have been (tonnes per hectare):
1999 = 9.2
1998 = 10.3
1997 = 8.1
1996 = 11.2
1995 = 12.2


    Montanas sales in NZ are 30% up this year and sunday trading and the
mellenium
plus the americas cup have all helped push up wins sales.
        So unless something bad happens to this years harvest it is going to
be all
good news on the wine front.
    Now may be a good time to buy.  Its noticable that the recent price
declines
on the new zealand sharemarket , that montana has held uop well and is
showing good relative strength.
    With wine sales set to double in the next decade it should be a very
good long term stock for both growth and dividends

  nick





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