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Daily ShareChat: Hellaby Holdings

By Jenny Ruth

Tuesday 13th July 2010

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 Jenny Ruth

Hellaby Holdings' earnings have been depressed for the last 18 months by tough local trading conditions and restructuring costs but the emerging recovery and benefits from the recovery should increase earnings but that isn't reflected in the current share price, says Craigs Investment Partners.

"Although first-half 2010 sales remained sluggish, where restructuring was complete, margins increased strongly and net debt was down 32%," Craigs says.

Hellaby has since said core bank debt at June 30 was $25 million, 51% lower than a year earlier. The company also has $50 million in capital notes.

Craigs says its forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the company of $33 million are still 40% below historic earnings. "We believe a more robust local economy should see a gradual earnings recovery."
The key downside risk is the pace of the recovery and how quickly it is reflected in Hellaby's equipment and shoe retailing divisions, the broker says.

While shoe retailing sales have been maintained, margins collapsed under competitive pressure while the equipment division sales fell 35% over the last two years and it has been making losses.

Craigs has a 12-month share price target of $2.24 which is a 25% discount to its discounted cashflow valuation to reflect the current lack of earnings visibility.

Recommendation: Buy



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