By Jenny Ruth
Tuesday 17th May 2011
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Ryman Healthcare is bringing forward the development of proposed large villages in Tauranga and Christchurch and is moving to a higher annual build rate as its villages get larger and have an increased focus on aged care, says Jeremy Simpson, an analyst at Forsyth Barr.
"Ryman is increasing its annual build rate from 450 units/beds (a year) to at least 550 units/beds (around 350 townhouses/apartments and 200 rest home beds)," Simpson says.
"With the sharply aging population, there is increasing demand for not only retirement village accommodation but also rest home beds, in particular Ryman's hospital and dementia facilities," he says.
Simpson expects Ryman to increase its build rate further in financial year 2016 to 400 units a year. He has also increased his expectations slightly of the rate of growth of annual care fees per bed to about 4.5%, "reflecting the strong demand outlook and Ryman's ability to charge premium pricing."
He says those aged 85 and over are expected to grow from about 66,000 today to 144,000 by 2031. "The aged care/rest home demand is expected to increase even further for Ryman than the underlying demographics suggest."
That's because of the lack of investment in the aged care sector apart from Ryman, its increasingly strong brand and its market leading position within a highly fragmented industry.
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