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StockGuru: NOG the gas for sharemarket game

Jenny Ruth

Monday 22nd March 2004

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Jenny Ruth
New Zealand Oil and Gas and its options proved winners for four of the top five placed entrants by the end of the second week of the second Sharechat Stock Guru Game after it won government approval for access to its Pike River coal mine on the West Coast.

NZOG owns 72% of the mine, which is adjacent to a national park, from which it plans to extract between 600,000 and a million tons of coal annually for about 20 years.

The company’s shares jumped from 47 cents to as high as 59 cents after the decision and its options reacted similarly. By the end of the second week of the game, the shares were up 21.7% while the options were up 22.7%.

NZOG’s latest result was a $2.8 million net loss for the six months ended December 31, although the company says it expects to post a profit for the full year.

Long-suffering shareholders got another piece of good news in January when they learned the Kupe offshore gasfield was to be developed after 18 years of being considered uneconomic.

Earlier this month, the Securities Commission dropped an investigation into suspected insider trading ahead of that announcement. NZOG owns 15% of Kupe after selling 4% Japanese conglomerate Mitsui for $9.2 million in early February.

The company’s Australia-based oil and gas explorer, Pan Pacific Petroleum, also proved a winner for two of the top five place-makers, gaining 8.3% over the two weeks despite its $1.4 million first-half loss which was mainly due to exploration write-offs.

Another oil and gas explorer, Austral Pacific Energy, which was spun out of Indo-Pacific Energy late last year, and its warrants boosted the portfolio of leading contestant, Coaster, which had gained 31.8% or $3,180.16 by the end of the second week. Austral Pacific shares were up 24.4% while its warrants were up 81.8%.

Car auctioneer Turners Auctions was a lucky pick for two of the top five, gaining nearly 6% as it rebounded from the sell-off which greeted its first half result.

While it was 6% above the company’s prospectus forecast, it was 5% down on the previous first half, reflecting losses on its start-up Canadian operation. If it hadn’t moved into Canada, the first-half result would have been up 21%.

As in the first game, contestants who picked major stocks mostly didn’t fare so well. The Warehouse Group, the most favoured stock in the current game having been chosen by 95 of the 256 contestants, was down nearly 0.7% by the end of the second week. The next most popular stock, Tower, was down 2%. Neither company has made any announcements this month.

But neither is picking tiddlers any guarantee of success. The worst performing portfolio, Bogart’s, included Apple Fields, market capitalisation $877,439 and Rocom Wireless, market capitalisation $1.4 million. Bogart’s notional $10,000 investment was $782.89 down by the end of the second week.

The rear vision principal seemed to work better, Pure New Zealand gaining another 20% after gaining 25% in the first game, although Retail-X, which rose 100% in the first game, was unchanged.

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