Comments on: Think Global: It’s a wrap (Jan/Feb) http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/think-global-its-a-wrap-janfeb/ ShareChat Blog Wed, 09 Nov 2011 15:11:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Mark http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/think-global-its-a-wrap-janfeb/comment-page-1/#comment-781 Mark Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:48:20 +0000 http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/?p=600#comment-781 I agree with pretty much everything you have to say Wayne. Funny when i was also working for a Britsih bank, with a strong Japan presense in Sydney in 1991 - 2 of our biggest clients were EIE and Daikyo - which was good for us as the previous biggy (Bond Corp) wasnt so active anymore. Next ... I agree with pretty much everything you have to say Wayne. Funny when i was also working for a Britsih bank, with a strong Japan presense in Sydney in 1991 – 2 of our biggest clients were EIE and Daikyo – which was good for us as the previous biggy (Bond Corp) wasnt so active anymore. Next …

]]> By: Wayne Lochore http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/think-global-its-a-wrap-janfeb/comment-page-1/#comment-775 Wayne Lochore Sat, 20 Mar 2010 23:52:27 +0000 http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/?p=600#comment-775 Mark - Thanks for your reply It always the case that everyone thinks you have it right until you talk about their patch, and then you're way off the mark. None of what you say alters the fact that the Australian plan has only one leg, and it's made of China, and there's absolutely no reason that China will be able to ignore the realities of the world anymore than Australia will. My main point was that even given the fact that Aussie is presently facing the best terms of trade in their history, they still can't live within their means, and this is a bad habit that will come and bite them on the bum. Everyone (Aussie included) needs to wake up and recognise that the game has changed - every country in the world has a 'growth plan' to get them out of the current mess, but nowhere is there the other side of the equation - the willing and able buyer. And I've seen the Aussie plan and it hasn't adjusted to the new reality - because the numbers look good just now doesn't make it sound or sane to multiply these numbers by the sort of optimistic factors that are being used to come up with the next phase of the Aussie miracle. I'm not doubting that being in Australia has been a good thing for many Kiwis but that in itself doesn't mean that this is a permanent thing that will never change. Anyone or any country having its best ever period who is not balancing their budget (or even saving something) is skating on very thin ice and my judgement is that is exactly what is happening in Australia right now. And lets be real - nowhere is the Australian exactly noted for their modesty, so one day they're bound to cop the flipside of that too. The China plan requires the willing buyer too, and any faltering here will expose the excesses of every other aspect of the numbers I see coming from Australia. And I was working in Sydney in 1991 when the Japanese were buying real estate and golf courses and everything, and it didn't help them! But don't worry I won't be any kinder about New Zealand - I just haven't written about Kiwis yet because we are sitting ducks who can't realistically do anything to alter that in the absence of a major and sustainable global recovery - something I don't see happening. Mark – Thanks for your reply
It always the case that everyone thinks you have it right until you talk about their patch, and then you’re way off the mark.
None of what you say alters the fact that the Australian plan has only one leg, and it’s made of China, and there’s absolutely no reason that China will be able to ignore the realities of the world anymore than Australia will.
My main point was that even given the fact that Aussie is presently facing the best terms of trade in their history, they still can’t live within their means, and this is a bad habit that will come and bite them on the bum.
Everyone (Aussie included) needs to wake up and recognise that the game has changed – every country in the world has a ‘growth plan’ to get them out of the current mess, but nowhere is there the other side of the equation – the willing and able buyer. And I’ve seen the Aussie plan and it hasn’t adjusted to the new reality – because the numbers look good just now doesn’t make it sound or sane to multiply these numbers by the sort of optimistic factors that are being used to come up with the next phase of the Aussie miracle.
I’m not doubting that being in Australia has been a good thing for many Kiwis but that in itself doesn’t mean that this is a permanent thing that will never change. Anyone or any country having its best ever period who is not balancing their budget (or even saving something) is skating on very thin ice and my judgement is that is exactly what is happening in Australia right now. And lets be real – nowhere is the Australian exactly noted for their modesty, so one day they’re bound to cop the flipside of that too.
The China plan requires the willing buyer too, and any faltering here will expose the excesses of every other aspect of the numbers I see coming from Australia. And I was working in Sydney in 1991 when the Japanese were buying real estate and golf courses and everything, and it didn’t help them!
But don’t worry I won’t be any kinder about New Zealand – I just haven’t written about Kiwis yet because we are sitting ducks who can’t realistically do anything to alter that in the absence of a major and sustainable global recovery – something I don’t see happening.

]]> By: Mark http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/think-global-its-a-wrap-janfeb/comment-page-1/#comment-731 Mark Tue, 16 Mar 2010 01:09:45 +0000 http://www.sharechat.co.nz/blog/?p=600#comment-731 I like your column and you have a great global perspective, except on Aussie. Yes its a bet the resources boom continues (of which NZ has nothing to offer, unless they decide to pull finger and get into the mining game) - WA may need 400,000 more people for the next resource boom - and i bet a fair chunk of those will be kiwis, maybe at least 50,000 Theres approx 500-600k Kiwis in Oz. The number doesnt really move that much. If i ask the 2 maori Crown Removals guys moving in my furniture in Sydney last time i moved here in 2009 back from Auckland what job they would do if they lived back in NZ. They say nothing, probably couldnt get anything, so family pressure means they would have to get back into burglary. Having them over here working is safer for everyone and lets move on from trying to attract NZs back to NZ. Get real theres not much if any white coller work for 40+ males. I work in financial markets, if i lived in Auckland i would most probably be unemployed, maybe able to get a Mc job. Its not sad, just commercial reality - and yes i will be getting my heavy vehicle drivers license. Check out all the mainland chinese buying safe haven Sydney real estate too, and all the chinese banks setting up Sydney branch offices in the last 2 years Cheers cobber I like your column and you have a great global perspective, except on Aussie.

Yes its a bet the resources boom continues (of which NZ has nothing to offer, unless they decide to pull finger and get into the mining game) – WA may need 400,000 more people for the next resource boom – and i bet a fair chunk of those will be kiwis, maybe at least 50,000

Theres approx 500-600k Kiwis in Oz. The number doesnt really move that much. If i ask the 2 maori Crown Removals guys moving in my furniture in Sydney last time i moved here in 2009 back from Auckland what job they would do if they lived back in NZ. They say nothing, probably couldnt get anything, so family pressure means they would have to get back into burglary. Having them over here working is safer for everyone

and lets move on from trying to attract NZs back to NZ. Get real theres not much if any white coller work for 40+ males. I work in financial markets, if i lived in Auckland i would most probably be unemployed, maybe able to get a Mc job. Its not sad, just commercial reality – and yes i will be getting my heavy vehicle drivers license.

Check out all the mainland chinese buying safe haven Sydney real estate too, and all the chinese banks setting up Sydney branch offices in the last 2 years

Cheers cobber

]]>