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Archive for August, 2009

The bears remain in hibernation – for now

Monday, August 31st, 2009

The currency, and financial markets generally, are largely in a holding pattern at present – the weakening GBP an exception – in part due to a lull in information releases, in part due to Northern hemisphere holidays and in part due to markets having reached a natural point of inflection.

New information is probably required to shift sentiment strongly, one way or other.

The US S&P 500 share price index is now 54% above its 6-Mar low. This is about where the rebound rallies ended for Italy and France in the 1960s, the US, Switzerland and Europe in the 1970s and Japan in the 1990s.

There were post-crash rebounds at other times that have gone further but we are in the zone where the recovery glow has tended to wane (see Morgan Stanley on the history of bear markets). Meanwhile we also remain within the time of year most prone to share market falls and we have insiders selling while the general public are buying.

And to cap it off, we know that governments will have to tighten monetary and fiscal policy at some stage over the next couple of years (the Chinese have started already, contributing to a 3.4% share market decline last week).

This makes for nervous markets, and most likely volatility.

From a momentum perspective, the near-term bias is likely to be upwards, there being little to indicate that the ‘good news’ is about to stop. For the NZD, upward pressure is also likely to come from an RBA approaching the time of its first tightening (don’t discount the possibility of a surprise rate hike Tuesday – the Australian cash rate is at emergency levels no longer required and it is now 5 months since their last easing, the same gap waited back in 2002 before the first-in-the-cycle rate hike).

From a value perspective, current levels in the share markets and NZD appear over-priced relative to the risks ahead.

In summary, the NZD/USD at 70c remains a strong possibility. But that need not prevent the NZD/USD again reaching 60c before Xmas as well.

Credit crunch: As seen on TV

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

It’s good to see financial products inspiring prime-time television drama and the BBC-produced Freefall, which aired on TV One last Sunday night, was a real credit to CDOs.

(Do I have to spell out still that CDO stands for Collateralised Debt Obligation? Has the acronym now entered the collective consciousness as shorthand for inscrutable and unstable investment products? These are questions for debate amongst sub-editors.)

For those who did more interesting things on Sunday night, Freefall followed the fates of three main characters – a CDO packager, a mortgage broker and his security guard former schoolmate – from the peak of the boom in 2007 until the market collapse a year later.

Although the reviews I flicked through were generally positive, like these two in The London Paper and The Guardian, there were a few complaints about the ‘obviousness’ of the plot and characters. The Daily Telegraph, for example, whinged about its “complete lack of subtlety”. The mortgage broker character, Dave, in particular irked the reviewer, James Walton, who said it was “such a caricature… [it] was impossible to see how Dave could ever have taken anybody in”.

Walton has clearly never had much to do with the money business. I’ve met plenty of Daves – if anything I thought the Freefall character was underplayed.

And while it did clunk a bit occasionally, Freefall was a decent attempt to tell the credit crunch story – I quite liked it, especially the end where Dave was resurrected as an ‘eco’ product salesman.

Maybe it wasn’t as good as Shakespeare’s take on debt obligations, The Merchant of Venice, but he didn’t need a character to explain the ins and outs of CDOs to his audience. It was simple in the 16th century, when debt was uncollateralised and you paid with a pound of flesh.

Bring on another financial inquisition

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Is the disclosure of advisers’ commissions adequate? Should advisers’ commissions be banned?

These are just two of the difficult questions that the Parliamentary commerce select committee will consider in its recently-announced inquiry into the finance company sector.

The committee could save a bit of time and further enhance our closer economic relationship with Australia by copying the opinion voiced by that country’s financial regulator, which proposed the banning of all commissions, including fees linked to the size of assets, in its recent submission to one of the regular Australian government inquiries into the financial sector.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) submission is a strong statement of intent and if it is eventually implemented, there will be pressure to duplicate the policy in New Zealand.

But that may be some time away. The commerce committee inquiry should be able to get to the bottom of some other questions much quicker. For example, the proposed terms of reference for the inquiry ask: “Whether the marketing and advertising of investment proposals play a disproportionate role in investors’ decisions.”

The answer is yes. Marketing and advertising play a disproportionate role in all consumer decisions.

Here’s another hard one: “What steps can be taken to improve the existing level of investor understanding of financial products and services?”

Government think-tanks, financial institutions, university researchers and other thought leaders have been puzzling over this one for some time and haven’t really cracked it yet. Although, the collapse of about 30 finance companies in New Zealand in the midst of the greatest global financial crisis in many decades has certainly perked up local investors’ interest in the subject. Where did those billions go?

Lianne Dalziel, who chairs the commerce committee, says the inquiry will delve into areas not included in the swag of financial reforms currently being implemented – reforms that were brought in under her reign as Commerce Minister. But it looks to me as though there is some degree of overlap with her earlier reforms. For instance, the bit about adviser disclosure as well as a proposal to “examine the measures in place that provide redress to investors” – both of these were taken care of in legislation hurriedly introduced last year, by her.

In pushing for this inquiry, Dalziel is effectively admitting she got it wrong the first time around and now wants to tidy up a few loose ends.

Everybody makes mistakes.

The risk of a second dip remains high

Monday, August 24th, 2009

The goldilocks period continues for the global financial markets – the news at the margin is largely positive (the level of activity is not!) while interest rates are very low – and hence up go global share prices, the price of oil and along with them the NZD, including the NZD/GBP passing the same peak reached in 2005 and 2008 (but not the NZD/CAD).

There is one major challenge to this scenario this week – the US government issuing another massive round of debt Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday – but the lack of other major scheduled financial news suggests the momentum carries the NZD generally higher in the next few days, and maybe weeks.

However it still remains difficult to see the NZD/USD, for instance, remaining above 70c over a period of months.

Background articles of interest …

1) Investor confidence is now high according to the Merrill Lynch monthly survey of global fund managers, the index reaching its highest level since Nov-03 – a warning to all contrarians (and, yes, the S&P 500 did drop in the first half of 2004, by 5%).

2) The challenge ahead: removing the massive US stimulus in place without derailing the economy, and while holding onto your job Yahoo

3) Of a similar theme, former Morgan Stanley Analyst Andy Xie believes we are amidst a pure liquidity bubble, a temporary equilibrium that depends largely on the US and Chinese governments and – as do the IMF – that a sustained recovery requires a rebalancing of US and Chinese savings rates. Some other observations: the Chinese growth rate is slowing right now; liquidity is fueling a rising oil price trend. And forecasts: the US Fed will start raising interest rates within 6 months; asset prices will weaken next year.

SMELLIE SNIFFS THE BREEZE: Our best friends, the Aussies

Friday, August 21st, 2009

New Zealanders living in Australia are so commonplace that Aussies generally only notice them to mock their vowels.  This is very annoying to those Kiwis, who have been known to commiserate with Tasmanians on the subject of being ignored.

So, when the Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd talked of “reinvigorating the spirit of ANZAC” during this week’s summit with his Kiwi counterpart John Key, it was tempting to wonder whether this meant New Zealand would now appear second in Australian ANZAC Day parades, rather between New Caledonia and Norway, as has been known to happen all too often.

For Australians living in New Zealand, however, it is a completely different story.  Next Monday morning, all over the country, expatriate Aussies will arrive at work mentally prepared for the no-win situation created by every Wallabies vs All Blacks clash.  If the AB’s win, they will get a riotous shellacking from their gloating Kiwi colleagues. This could last for anything up to a week and will quickly become very tedious.

And if our boys in black don’t do the business, the Kiwi-side Okkers will be targets for a particular brand of glowering nastiness from some of their workmates, because New Zealand still needs to grow up about our neighbours across the Ditch.

As Mike Moore used to put it: “The Aussies are our best friends, even if we don’t like them.”

By placing the relationship with Australia very firmly near the top of his agenda for economic revitalisation, John Key – a politician known for liking anybody – has taken a refreshingly positive step this week towards making the friendship work.

Equally refreshing is Rudd’s apparent enthusiasm for the initiative.  New Zealand Governments repeatedly find Australia looking the other way.  For once, there seems to be willingness to look in our direction.  The Single Economic Market Outcomes Framework laid out this week also suggests this is more than flirtatious glancing, although whether they’ll respect us in the morning remains the unspoken question on even the most enthusiastic Aussie-phile’s lips.

That’s because the inevitable calculus of the Australia-New Zealand political relationship is simply this: Australia wants it, Australia gets it.

From the battle over New Zealand apple importation – almost a century old and before the World Trade Organisation for a ruling – to the infamous fax that cancelled the trans-Tasman open skies agreement in the mid-1990′s, through to Canberra’s current unwillingness to licence AXE, the New Zealand-owned rival to the Australian Stock Exchange, there is plenty of evidence that Australia holds the whip hand.

And where New Zealand has gone it alone, particularly in its independent foreign and defence policy, a powerful class of senior federal bureaucrats keeps alive the memory of such perfidies so that New Zealand is always cast as the supplicant in Australian eyes.

As their former Prime Minister Paul Keating once put it, New Zealand is “all take and no give”.

Mind you, he’d just had a tongue-lashing from the then New Zealand Finance Minister, Ruth Richardson, about Australia’s complete lack of interest in making imputation credits attached to company dividends recognisable in both countries’ tax systems.

Some 15 years on, that hardy perennial is not about to be fixed.  Among a long list of things that are firmly on the agenda for “substantial progress” by the end of this year, the Rudd-Key statement merely “notes New Zealand’s strong interest in the mutual recognition of imputation credits”.

That’s diplo-code for “forget it” and the fact that it’s there is testimony only to New Zealand’s “water dripping on stone” approach to progress in some areas.

“You’ve got to keep saying it, otherwise if you don’t say it, they’ll say ‘you didn’t say it’,” says one long-time Australia-watcher.

This week’s breakthroughs on trans-Tasman travel protocols, however, prove that the dripping water approach can work. The issue has been on the agenda forever and at last there is substantial movement, all the more remarkable for the border protection traditions of both countries.

As island nations, Australia and New Zealand’s biosecurity precautions strike citizens from the joined-up parts of the world as downright odd.  Finding a way to keep those checks in place while whisking the masses through the Arrivals halls on both sides of the Tasman has required a lot of fresh thinking.

Australia has also always been a tad paranoid about outsiders.  Until recently, New Zealanders were the only people who could travel there without a visa. By comparison, New Zealand seems happy to let in pretty much anyone with a nice enough smile.

Also significant is the “deliberate move from consideration purely of national benefits in policy development, to consideration of the net trans-Tasman benefit”.  While this was arguably what the 1983 Closer Economic Relations Agreement was all about, its restatement in terms of a change of emphasis is strong evidence of new vigour in the trans-Tasman relationship.

That’s particularly important for Key, who has identified catching Australian living standards by 2025 as a primary aim for his Government, and one way of doing so is to be as much a part of Australia as possible.

Perhaps Key hopes that some of what Australia has – with its more ruthless and mercantilist politics and commercial life, a far less purist approach to economic policy in the last 20 years, and much higher growth rates – will rub off on New Zealand too.

That’s where relaxing investment screening thresholds could be significant.  It may indicate new willingness to find ways to get around Australia’s age-old argument that relaxing the foreign investment rules for New Zealand would place it in breach of its strangely restrictive obligations to Japan under the 1977 Treaty of Nara.

Elsewhere, a bureaucratic nirvana of actionable policy items has been laid out: a common tradmarks register, cross-membership of one another’s competition watchdogs, a common business number system, to name but a few.  A New Zealand version of the Australian Productivity Commission seems almost inevitable and the two would work together.

Other work is afoot to make the regulatory systems of both countries as alike as possible to make it easier to do business, create jobs, and project into the wider world together.

To businesspeople, officials, and politicians who see the Australia-New Zealand relationship in big picture terms of economic opportunity, productivity improvement, and global competitiveness, the agenda is clear.

However, in both countries – in suspicious New Zealand with its fine tradition of cringing defiance and in Australia with its tradition of big neighbour insouciance – the politics are not easy.

What happened in Canberra this week was a promising fresh start.  What it produces will require not only hard yakka, but plenty of patience yet.

(BusinessWire)

Why your Kiwisaver tax rate could be too high

Thursday, August 20th, 2009

As I  lamented recently, the KiwiSaver system is full of interesting administrative quirks.

And another one has come to my attention this week that could see members paying over a third as much tax as they have to. Under the KiwiSaver rules (and the associated Portfolio Investment Entity – or PIE – regime) have to nominate the rate their investments will be taxed at.  Currently, KiwiSaver members can select a Prescribed Investor Rate (PIR) of either 19.5 per cent or 30 per cent depending on income levels.

If your income changes, it is up to the individual to notify the KiwiSaver provider about any adjustment to their PIR (the IRD has some useful explanations of the PIR process).

According to a tax lawyer I spoke to this week, KiwiSaver providers are also required to prompt their members to review PIRs each year. But at least one provider has interpreted this requirement very conservatively and will automatically reset 19.5 per cent PIR members up to 30 per cent at the beginning of each tax year unless it is notified that the lower tax rate still applies.

As Mercer explains in a member statement passed on to me: “By law, if you are eligible for the lower (19.5 per cent) tax rate you need to let Mercer know each year, otherwise the default tax rate of 30 per cent will apply.”

A couple of KiwiSaver experts I spoke to described the Mercer approach to PIR resets as “unusual” and it may indeed be the only provider to adopt this method.  However, with 60,000 plus members enrolled in the Mercer KiwiSaver scheme – most of these through the default fund – there’s plenty of potential for members to be inappropriately bumped up to the 30% tax rate without their knowledge.

In its member statements Mercer doesn’t make a big deal of the PIR reset – it’s explained in the fineprint – but it should. I would bet most KiwiSaver members – Mercer or otherwise – haven’t read their statements that closely.

But if your PIR has jumped to 30% when it should be 19.5% you will not receive any tax overpayment back from the IRD or Mercer (on the other hand the IRD would chase you for any underpayment) so READ YOUR STATEMENT.

This warning also applies to KiwiSaver members who signed up through KiwiBank, which distributes the Mercer scheme under the bank brand. That relationship will officially come to an end this week – but the PIR problem may persist.

Back to the old ways

Monday, August 17th, 2009

There is a growing sense that the worst of the global recession is over. There is also further evidence that conditions are improving in New Zealand. Meanwhile there are not many events due in the next couple of weeks to rattle confidence in the recovery scenario. This is a backdrop that would normally favour a higher NZ dollar, just like the old days.

The problem is that a return to the old days seems inconceivable; surely people and policy-makers will change their ways? Well, that is yet to be determined. Currently we can point to high levels of global liquidity. We can point to speculative activity in global assets markets. And we can point to central banks reluctant to act, for fear of derailing the recovery (or our central bank threatening “the OCR could still move modestly lower“). All reminiscent of 2003.

Eventually, though, there will be fiscal and monetary tightening. It is unlikely that any exit strategy will occur smoothly. Thus there is plenty of volatility ahead. It is tempting to anticipate this policy response by selling NZ dollars now but the NZ dollar is likely to move higher in the near-term.

Background articles …

1) Growth rates have proven to be generally better than feared in the June quarter (NZ and Australia yet to be reported) with growth in Germany and France amongst Europe, and generally in Asia. But overall output did decline in the Eurozone, as was the case in the US. Both paled besides Russia. These data, plus more recent figures pointing to improvement have prompted economists to increase growth predictions (WSJ) for second half 2009. It appears the worst is behind us.

2) There has been more confirmation of a local recovery also: confidence up in the general monthly BNZ survey; pockets of regional job recovery reported by Hays Specialist Recruitment; greater confidence about housing in the quarterly ASB survey; and, more forward-looking, Infometrics forecast the fast-population, slow-construction mismatch to show as 11% higher house prices over 12 months.

3) In the US corporate world, 91% of US S&P 500 companies having reported June quarter results and the pattern is clear: US profits are still rising faster than expected for most but sales are still falling – down 5% in the quarter – and meanwhile corporates are sitting on near-record levels of cash; the market has re-rated share prices but not near-term earnings, thus pushing the P/E on prospective 12-months operating earnings higher but at 14.4 it remains below the 18-year average of 18.4. The implication: there is potential for further sharp share price rises IF sales growth were to emerge.

4) Here is where policy becomes relevant. At present the central banks are adopting a stimulative stance, such as the Fed maintaining “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period“. But eventually they will have to unwind the huge monetary stimulus in place. When? Some point to 1937 and suggest the central bank response will be slow and gradual. But there is also the lesson of the too-slow US tightening of 2003-2004 to keep in mind.

5) Meanwhile signs of the old excesses are already emerging; on Wall Street; and in the local housing market with banks again offering high LVR loans and real estate agents talking of missing out.

SMELLIE SNIFFS THE BREEZE: Crushed by the rolling maul

Monday, August 17th, 2009

What a big week. It seems no time at all ago that bored political journalists were accusing Prime Minister John Key of running out of steam. It is now clear he was tapering.

Last Monday, the Cabinet cleared the decks of two of the year’s most contentious and potentially unpopular decisions: to return the SAS to Afghanistan and to offer a distinctly compromised 2020 target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Could the Key government be getting wise? Swamp the media with two huge stories at the same time, and they smash around in the news bucket for a bit before cancelling one another out.

And then, if you’re a really well-organised government, you release a popular policy to put a smile on the faces of the people who maybe didn’t care so much about the other two issues anyway.

That was the political effect of Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee dumping out the Ministerial Electricity Market Review early on Wednesday morning.

Climate change and military decisions that border on Anglo-American toadying had barely a full news cycle before something else came along to take the wind out of their sails – bashing the power companies!

The suggestion, floated by Brownlee on Sunday morning TV and confirmed on Wednesday, that power companies should be punished by having to pay their customers to save power is politically very deft.

Not only because it allows the distrusting and cynical power user to imagine planting a blow to the solar plexus of their energy supplier behemoth, but also because it lets Brownlee keep the unloved but functional electricity market intact, and has enough teeth and new incentives to be more than just a clever political ploy.

One example of how the proposed new regime would bite, if adopted: a complete inversion of the reserve generation system put in place in 2003 by then Energy Minister Pete Hodgson.

That scheme reacted to the politics of sky-high wholesale electricity spot prices by trying to regulate an upper limit to prices. This was achieved by the government building a diesel-fired, fast start power station at Whirinaki, and making NZ$200 per megawatt hour the price at which it would be brought into service.

This may have taken the political sting out of an issue, but it had the perverse effect of dissuading big power users and producers from having a back-up plan of their own. Brownlee has made hay this week of Meridian’s efforts last winter to lobby for low spot prices in the Beehive after finding itself exposed to low lakes and high prices that it hadn’t insured against.

Under the new scheme, if a power savings emergency is declared, spot prices on the wholesale electricity market will start – that is, their lowest point will be – NZ$5,000 per MWh. They will be capable of rising in NZ$5,000 steps as shortages mount.

On top of the ignominy of writing cheques to their customers for having cold showers, this is the sort of heavy cost that makes electricity company CEO’s sit up and take notice. Tens of millions of dollars of profit can disappear overnight when that sort of thing starts happening. Just ask Contact Energy: today’s 50% drop in annual profit is mainly because it got caught out in the South Island, and forced to pay very high spot prices to meet customer demand.

So the new market rules, assuming most of the recommendations to Brownlee happen, will be seeking to impose a very new set of behaviours on the generator-retailers, who will nonetheless be sighing with relief that no more fundamental shake-up was mooted. Not that that should be a surprise. The reality is that just about every consultant and official involved in the review had a roughly similar view of the issues, to the extent that the only unconflicted consultants seemed to be those unlikely to agree.

This enraged Victoria University economics professor Geoff Bertram, a long-time critic of electricity market arrangements, who sees evidence of a kind of group-think in the way that the findings of the five-year study by energy professor Frank Wolak have been brushed aside. Chief among Wolak’s findings was that power companies had used market power during dry winters to overcharge consumers by NZ$4.3 billion. This conclusion was vehemently contested in the electricity industry and disbelieved by many officials, but was not the only view.

“There is no acknowledgement that other commentators, including myself, believe that Wolak’s figure is an underestimate of the scale of profiteering by generators,” says Bertram.

Meanwhile, the government’s emissions target was probably never going to be much other than what got announced. New Zealand was awarded a “Fossil of the Day” trophy by environmental NGO’s observing the latest round of talks on the new global climate treaty, which occurred in Bonn this week.

The New Zealand position is an exquisite creature of compromise, sitting just a little below our true leader in these matters these days, Australia, which is offering 14% to 24% cuts in emissions below 1990 levels by 2020. More laggard by miles are the US and Canada, which is offering barely to stabilise emissions at 1990 levels by 2020. Likewise, the New Zealand Treasury recommended a 10% range around zero: in other words, that New Zealand should offer only to cut as much as 5% of its emissions and possibly allow them to go 5% above 1990 levels.

European Union countries and the New Zealand Business Council for Sustainable Development lined up on 20% to 30% cuts, while only the Council of Trade Unions was on for a 25% to 40% band for emissions cuts, which is what the International Panel on Climate Change is recommending.

Little-noticed in all this also was the fact that almost half the members of the Pacific Islands Forum were up for 30%-plus targets, but that the Forum fell in line with New Zealand and Australia in its official position at last week’s summit in Cairns.

The trouble with the emissions target is this: the government’s position is on one hand outrageously inadequate.  Its critics see it as blithely sacrificing the planet while quailing before a farming lobby whose leadership is stuck in the 1970′s (if not earlier). Yet even the 10 to 20% range for cuts involves far more change than most New Zealanders understand.

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels in the next 11 years will be a struggle – our emissions today are about 24% higher than they were in 1990, when we signed the Kyoto Protocol and promised to start bringing them down.

To go 10% to 20% beyond that without a technological revolution and without a big contribution from farming has consequences, mainly flying less, driving less, buying less, and wasting less.  In other words, living more sustainably by giving stuff up that we do all the time without thinking about today.

Are you ready for that?

(BusinessWire)

Shut your loophole

Thursday, August 13th, 2009

If New Zealanders have a love affair with property investments, it’s one where government and regulators have acted as pimp.

As well as granting property investment favourable tax treatment, the government has consistently shied away from including real estate spruikers under the same regulatory regime as other financial advisers and product providers.

For example, real estate agents who sell investment properties were originally intended to be caught under the soon-to-be implemented Financial Advisers Act, which carries higher standards of disclosure and tougher punishments for those who operate in the advice arena.

However, due to effective lobbying and a desire to scale down the amount of regulatory work required by the Securities Commission, agents who flog ‘investment’ properties were exempted from the Act.

Big mistake.

Where there’s a loophole, there’s a business.

Instead of being able to exercise direct control over the army of real estate agents and their investment propositions, the Securities Commission instead has to resort to issuing warnings such as this one released on Tuesday outlining the risks of “real property proportionate ownership schemes”.

Incredibly, these schemes are even exempt for having to issue a full prospectus and are only required to produce a less-rigorous document called an “offeror’s statement”.

And there are plenty of hooks.

“Someone investing in this type of property syndicate may also be agreeing to share its debts and liabilities, jointly or severally. This means that if the syndicate can’t pay its debts or fund repairs, investors may have to make up the shortfall,” the Securities Commission notes. “In fact, each investor may be liable for the whole amount. You may end up owing money to the syndicate.”

Yeah, that sounds like a risk and not perhaps one a “timid first time investor”, as one proportionate property scheme promoter puts it, might want to take.

Everyone who purports to offer investment advice should be caught by the same laws but real estate agents aren’t the only ones given an out clause in the Financial Advisers Act – accountants and lawyers, for instance, are exempt if they give investment advice in the course of their regular business.

A story recounted to me today highlighted the danger of this exemption. A couple who sold their home, then let their lawyer invest the money while they waited to purchase a new house. When the money disappeared in a dud fund (maybe a proportionate property scheme), the Law Society could only inform the couple that “there’s risk in all investments”.

Didn’t you know that?

Local green shoots means NZD stays with pack

Monday, August 10th, 2009

The global financial markets continue to walk a tight rope. The momentum favours growth and rising share prices, and hence a higher NZ dollar.

However there are serious questions over whether this growth momentum can be maintained next year, especially as fiscal and monetary policies are inevitably tightened. Central banks such as the RBNZ, BOE and ECB are downplaying any potential tightening and the US Fed will probably do likewise this week. Hence the NZD/JPY, NZD/EUR and maybe NZD/USD head higher for now, caught in the global risk-buying spree.

Key events shaping the future …

1) Leading indicators continue to point to higher near-term global production, consistent with output being raised to match demand that has now stabilised (but demand not necessarily increasing much). This output recovery theme does not appear to be finished yet (see Danske Bank for overview), and hence neither has the rising share market trend probably ended; in turn suggesting further upside for currencies like the AUD.

2) This global recovery is at last showing for NZ exporters, whole milk powder prices rising by 26% at the recent Fonterra auction. Meanwhile local retail spending edged higher in July (Paymark) and the continued housing recovery in July (Barfoot) suggests more spending growth to come. These news items should be sufficient to see the NZD stay with other rising currencies such as the AUD and BRL.

3) However the NZD is likely to lag, rather than lead, the AUD higher judging by the relative interest rate shift last week: interest rates are priced to increase in both countries next year (in spite of the RBNZ’s warning of possible further easing) but Australian 90-day bank bills rates are now expected to be 1.2% higher by March (up 0.4% last week) while the equivalent NZ rate is expected to be 0.5% higher (up 0.1%). This implied rising interest rate differential is likely to see the NZD/AUD remain low in the weeks ahead.

4) Interest rate differentials also look likely to play a greater role in the major exchange rates. Higher US yields last week saw the USD/JPY rise and EUR/USD fall. While this stalled the NZD/USD rally, it also accelerated the NZD/JPY rally and NZD/EUR rallies. Rising share prices will likely see these later two trends persist.

5) Just how much US interest rates are about to rise will become clearer this week following the FOMC meeting (see Calendar). The US Fed are expected (see Bloomberg) to allow their Treasury-buying programme to end (having bought around one-third of Treasury bonds issued since late March). But they will still buy large volumes of mortgage-backed-securities through to year-end and, using other central bank as a guide, will probably still be emphasising easy conditions rather than focusing on an exit strategy (just yet).

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